Geostatistical Analysis of Apricot Shot Hole Disease and Influence Factors in District Nagar, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

Apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) is the most common, high-income generative fruit and consequently plays an important part in region's socio-economic growth. However, apricots are susceptible to several diseases pests that cause lower yields significant financial losses, including apricot shot hole disease brought on by Wilsonomyces carpophilus, a polyphagous fungus, creates serious threat stone fruits, particularly tree. The current study used descriptive statistics geostatistical approaches evaluate geographical distribution of (5 valleys, 30 orchards, 480 trees) district Nagar, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. From each tree, 150 total 72,000, were randomly selected assess incidence, index, severity. Results revealed spatially distributed within area, varying valleys orchards. range prevalence was 50.0-67.70%, incidence 56.97-64.01%, index 32.49-40.56% mean severity 0.21-0.24%. Geostatistical techniques predict spatial dependency class. had nugget/sill ratio 0.915, inferring weak dependence, whereas inferred moderate dependence with ratios 0.479, 0.628, 0.393, respectively. Moreover, spherical semivariogram model, trend analysis graph, GIS maps indicate disease. This information linked metrological data (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity) seemingly favored development during growing period. Evaluation mapping strategies monitoring distributions field setting will improve decision support for management, selection resistant variety, sanitation condition Continuous climate pest essential creating efficient warning system farmers other organizations involved agriculture prevent future plant epidemics.